By Asad El Malik

As the world’s attention turns towards the upcoming United States presidential election in November, Africa stands with keen interest, observing the potential ramifications of the contest between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. The possibility of another Trump presidency is troubling to many on the continent. 

During his tenure, President Donald Trump left an indelible mark on the U.S.-Africa relations, albeit with controversial actions and rhetoric. Trump’s derogatory remarks about African nations, labeling them as “shithole” countries, reverberated globally, tarnishing diplomatic relations. Moreover, his administration imposed travel restrictions and refugee resettlement limitations on several Muslim-majority African countries, exacerbating tensions.

Trump’s Office of Management and Budget proposed cuts to foreign assistance, if implemented, would have disproportionately impacted Africa, jeopardizing longstanding U.S. commitments to health, democracy promotion, and security assistance on the continent. Despite these challenges, analyses suggest that Trump’s Africa policies bore resemblance to those of his predecessors. The Council on Foreign Relation released a brief in 2020 that stated the Trump “administration has carried on many of the constructive policies of its predecessors.” 

In keeping tradition with his predecessors, Trump created a signature initiative called Prosper Africa, aimed at fostering U.S. business interests in the region. The initiative was touted as the American response to China’s Belt and Road initiative. The bipartisan Better Utilization of Investments Leading to Development (BUILD) Act bolstered the Prosper Africa initiative. It led to the establishment of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), designed to enhance and supplant the functions of the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC). Notably, BUILD significantly increased the investment ceiling from $29 billion under OPIC to $60 billion under DFC

However, despite such initiatives, U.S.-Africa trade witnessed a decline under the Trump administration. In 2018, US-Africa trade had decreased nearly $60 billion since its record high of $100 billion in 2008.  Moreover, punitive measures, such as  suspensions of tariff free access to the US market against countries like Rwanda, after the East African country employed duties on the import of second hand clothes.

Private investment in Africa also experienced a downturn during the Trump era. Direct US foreign investment in Africa decreased from $50.4 billion in 2017 to $43.2 billion in 2019.  Concurrently, China capitalized on this void, expanding its investment and influence across Africa, presenting a challenge to U.S. dominance in the region.

Looking ahead, the outcome of the presidential election holds profound implications for U.S.-Africa relations. A potential re-election of Trump could signal continued focus on domestic priorities, including immigration at the Mexican border and economic rivalry with China. Trump’s proposed plan to phase out Chinese imports and restrict Chinese ownership of critical U.S. infrastructure underscores his administration’s confrontational approach towards Beijing.

However, amidst these domestic and global challenges, there exists the prospect of increased U.S. attention towards Africa, particularly in the context of competition with China. A new Trump administration may recalibrate its Africa policy, seeking to counter Chinese influence and capitalize on emerging economic opportunities.

As Africa navigates the uncertainties of global politics, the continent remains poised to engage with the United States, albeit with cautious optimism and a discerning eye towards the future.