The words ‘stunning’, ‘unprecedented’, and ‘historic’ have been used to describe US President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential election campaign on Sunday. These words are however not being used with accuracy. Ever since his disastrous debate with the Republican Party nominee Donald Trump on June 27, a groundswell of opposition to Biden’s Democratic candidacy had ensued and grown strident with each passing day. It was just a matter of days to his folding a presidential bid that had suddenly grown unviable, putting paid to the notion that his decision would be ground-shaking.

From an African perspective, Biden leaves a legacy of effort to mend relations with a continent that had fallen so low off the US foreign policy agenda during the Trump administration between 2016 and 2020. From the moment when Trump denigrated the continent as “shithole countries” in 2018, to the ban on migration to the US from Muslim-majority nations (including many African ones), to diplomatic spats between him and the leaders of South Africa and Rwanda, the relations reached their nadir. Biden sought to repair the relations on many fronts. Early in his presidency, Biden appointed many African Americans to key positions, important for the continent because of the affinity of African Americans with the continent. He worked with a new team of White House advisors to develop an African policy framework launched in South Africa by Secretary of State Antony Blinken in August 2022. In December 2022, Biden hosted some 50 African heads of State in Washington DC for the US Africa Leaders Summit which kick-started a series of economic, diplomatic, and cultural programs. In 2023, he launched the President’s Advisory Council for African Diaspora Engagement which has become a key avenue for implementing the Africa strategy and the resolutions of the 2022 summit. 

In throwing in the towel, Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his preferred nominee for the Democratic Party ticket. It is still too early to conclude the nomination of Harris as a fait accompli. Indications are that some Democratic Party bigwigs will try to present another politician to challenge Trump out of concern that Kamala may not be fit for the bill challenging a combative and resurgent Trump. Still, it appears at this point that Harris is heads and shoulders above potential Democratic Party competitors. In fact, the discussion has swiftly moved from nearly unassailable endorsement for Harris to potential running mates. If the attempted assassination of Trump the previous Sunday gave the Republican Party new determination, the arrival of Harris has given the Democratic Party a new lease of life – all in the space of one week.

Some analysts argue that it doesn’t matter to Africa who assumes the US presidency. Such analysts rely on investment and trade data to show that economic relations remain the same under Democratic or Republican presidencies. Nonetheless, Africans are often more in favour of democratic presidents than their republican counterparts. If Harris inherits the Democratic Party ticket, it will bode far better optics for Africa than Trump would for various reasons. For starters, Africans have the record of a Trump who neglected the continent during his first tenure as the alibi of what he would do should he win the November election. Second, the default position is to “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) which translates to putting American interests first and all else, including African interests, secondary. Third, Trump has vowed to undo all the policies and actions that Biden put in place including the Pro-Africa initiatives that the Biden administration is undertaking.

On the other hand, Harris would inherit the policies that the administration she has been part of, probably continuing with the Pro-Africa policies. One such would be the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) whose status ends next year.  Symbolically, it will be recalled that Harris visited Ghana, Tanzania, and Zambia in March-April 2023 as part of the enhanced engagement with the continent. She became the presidential-level US leader to visit the continent since former President Barack Obama’s visit to Kenya and Ethiopia in 2015. Harris therefore has working knowledge of Africa compared to a Trump who has little time for Africa.

During her visit in 2023, Harris announced that the U.S. would provide $100 million to Ghana and four other West African countries. This funding aims to address violent extremism and instability. Harris’s announcement is perceived as a strategic response to counter Russia and China’s growing influence on the continent. In addition, Vice President Kamala Harris recently announced the creation of a nonprofit, the Partnership for Digital Access in Africa, aiming to achieve internet access for 80% of the continent by 2030.

In stark contrast, The Heritage Foundation, an ultra-conservative think tank and ardent supporter of Trump, has proposed significant cuts to USAID funding in its Project 2025. This plan suggests eliminating support for programs that include terms like “gender,” “gender equality,” “gender equity,” “gender diverse individuals,” “gender aware,” “gender sensitive,” “abortion,” “reproductive health,” and “sexual and reproductive rights.” While not an official platform of a potential Trump administration, many see this proposal as indicative of the policy directions that might be pursued if Trump were to return to office. Africa and the rest of the developing world would suffer from such ideology-heavy cuts.

If filial affinities are anything to go by, Harris also portends better for the continent given her lineage. While her Asian American heritage (her mother was Indian) has been propounded, it is notable that her father, a Jamaican American, has African roots. At any rate, her multiracial heritage offers optimism for Africa given the perception that Trump is allied with right-wing white supremacy camp. In recent days, Trump has sought to attract the African American vote and appears to have gained some traction on this front compared to his 2016 campaign. Harris’ entry would complicate things for Trump given the higher level of “African” authenticity in her lineage. Indeed, it is probable that pro-Africa opinion shapers such as the Congressional Black Caucus and many liberal senators and congressmen would nudge Harris toward policies favourable to Africa.

The caveat in this analysis is that Kamala Harris is the presumptive Democratic Party nominee. This analysis is thus only partial as we await the unfolding of the process leading to the Democratic National Convention – where the party’s presidential candidate will be formally endorsed – scheduled for August 2024 in Chicago.

By Bob Wekesa and Asad el Malik